来源：金融界网站
作者：李鹏涛
嘉宾简介：Philipp Kircher， 爱丁堡大学经济学荣誉教授，欧洲经济协会的研究员，曾任《经济研究评论》的执行主编和主席。
主要观点
新冠肺炎若长期存在，或导致全球经济更持久的衰退
某些至关重要的领域中全球化趋势可能被逆转
远程工作是一个值得关注的趋势
数字经济或占据主导地位
新冠肺炎若长期存在，或导致全球经济更持久的衰退
金融界：新冠肺炎是否会对全球经济复苏产生持久影响？
Philipp Kircher ：新冠肺炎是否会对全球经济复苏产生持久性影响取决于新冠肺炎将何时结束。如果新冠肺炎能够通过治疗或疫苗快速并彻底的解决，那么由此产生的全球经济衰退仅会持续一段时间，但不太可能对全球经济复苏产生长期影响。如若新冠肺炎长期存在，它很有可能将影响到银行体系及其他部门，从而导致全球经济或持续更持久的衰退。在新冠病毒突变并像流感一样频繁的情况下，我们可能将会看到流感周期性的爆发及与其相关联的衰退。
某些至关重要的领域中全球化趋势可能被逆转
金融界：新冠肺炎疫情会逆转全球化趋势吗？
Philipp Kircher ：受到新冠肺炎疫情的影响，在某些至关重要的领域里全球化趋势可能被逆转。疫情中我们看到，一些国家出现了口罩或其他防护材料的短缺情况，这表明这些国家的部门极易受到产品进口依赖的影响。疫情过后，人们可以预期关键设备的生产能力或将大幅度降低，事实上，这样的情况已经出现了，但主要是与农产品和军事有关，随着疫情影响的深入，这个范围可能进一步扩大。
远程工作是一个值得关注的趋势
金融界：疫情背景下，有哪些全球趋势可能会重塑世界经济？
Philipp Kircher ：在疫情的背景下，远程工作是一个值得注意的全球趋势。远程工作将使国际合作愈发容易，同时也将导致更多的服务工作外包。远程工作还可能改变部署自动化的领域，以减少对人工劳动的依赖。
欧洲首次作为整体，推出经济复苏计划
金融界：数字经济从根本上改变了人与企业的合作方式，您是否认同数字经济将会成为世界经济和社会发展的趋势？
Philipp Kircher ：是的。数字经济是否有利于世界经济和社会发展的趋势，这是另一个问题。在未来，数字经济或将继续占据主导地位，并将改变人们和企业的合作方式。由于新冠肺炎的影响使得数字经济趋势明显加快，这种趋势并在某些方面会有较好的作用，例如，减少二氧化碳排放。这些趋势如何改变人们的社会环境和他们的心理健康仍然是一个有趣的问题。
以下为对话实录：
JRJ：Will Covid-19 Have a Lasting Impact on the road to global economicrecovery？
Philipp Kircher：The answer depends on how Covid will get resolved. If it gets resolvedquickly completely through a treatment or vaccine， then the resulting recessionwill linger for a while but is unlikely to have long-lasting implications. Ifit drags on for longer it might contaminate other sectors such as the bankingsystem， which could lead to longer-lasting recessions. And in a scenario whereCovid mutates as frequently as the flu we might see recurrent outbreaks andassociated recessions.
JRJ：Will corona virus reverse globalization？
Philipp Kircher：Probably at least in sectors that are seen as critical. The shortage ofmasks and other protective materials has shown to some countries thevulnerability to import-reliance in these sectors. One would expect a trendtowards a minimum capacity of production for critical equipment. It alreadyexists， but is largely linked to agricultural goods and military. Thedefinition will probably be broadened.
JRJ：In the context of the Covid-19, Which global trends will shape the worldeconomy in the next ten years？
Philipp Kircher：One noteworthy trend is tele-working. It will make internationalcollaboration even more likely. It will also lead to more outsourcing ofservice jobs. It might also change the areas on which automation is deployed，in order to reduce reliance on human labor.
JRJ：Digital technologies are fundamentally changing how people and businesseswork together. Do you agree that the digital economy is world’s economic andsocial development trend？
Philipp Kircher：Yes. Whether that is a good thing is a different question. But it seemsthat digital technologies will continue to dominate and transform both the waypeople interact as well as businesses. These trends clear get speeded up due tothe Covid epidemic. And in some dimensions – such as reducing CO2 emissions –this may be very helpful. How this changes the social environment of people andtheir mental health remains an interesting question.
